By Cornell B. LeSane II
Imminent demographic shifts and the steady decline in births, in large part due to the recession which began in 2008, have recently evoked a strong sense of urgency on college campuses across the United States.
Colleges and universities greatly benefited from the uptick in high school graduates in the early 2000s to almost 2015. Yet the inevitable downturn expected to take hold in 2025-26 will linger for at least a decade.
While many colleges increased enrollment goals during the period of growth, some of those same institutions will have to make the tough decision to reduce targets. Meanwhile, various institutions will continue to utilize the high tuition/high discount model while hoping to enroll an even larger class. Either way, the effects of the decline in high school graduates will be felt by many colleges, and decisions made now, and thus far, will determine many colleges’ long-term success.
Several factors will influence the overall health of Jesuit and Catholic institutions as these trends take effect. Schools with a strong market position and name recognition will likely experience minimal change depending on the strategies employed. Many other institutions will have to work that much harder to not only build name recognition, but also enroll and retain students, particularly as we prepare for students of the future. These include a decrease in white 18-year-olds (non-Hispanic), increase in 18-year-olds in a household where neither parent holds a bachelor's degree, a rise in families pondering the value of higher education, the increase in Hispanic students, and a reduction in students attending Catholic primary and secondary school.
Regional colleges will undoubtedly feel the brunt of the expected shifts, and the gap between colleges and universities considered to be “winning” and “losing” will only continue to expand. As many are aware, the Northeast and Midwest, where the largest cohort of colleges are, will be hit hardest due to the regions’ sheer volume of schools. There is simply too much capacity for fewer students.
Notably, enrollment has declined in U.S. Catholic schools (K-12) in recent decades, according to the National Catholic Educational Association (NCEA). This concerns leaders at many Jesuit and Catholic colleges and universities, as these schools tend to serve as “feeder” schools for their respective institutions. There have been some exceptions in the aftermath of widespread public-school closings during the pandemic, as some Catholic schools experienced a rebound based on their ability to provide in-person instruction. Still, it is too early to know if the increase will be sustained.
Based on a report from the Pew Research Center, 45 percent of Catholics ages 18 to 29 are Hispanic, reinforcing the importance of being more intentional and inclusive with recruitment efforts among this population. Embracing this transformation provides Jesuit and Catholic institutions the opportunity to make their presence felt in more communities and connect with an increasingly diverse population of students. Jesuit and Catholic institutions, as with colleges and universities in general, must therefore reinforce the importance of being more inclusive and employ a host of forward-thinking strategies to cast a wider net to students. Exclusively relying on traditional enrollment models will likely prove ineffective.
With an increasingly diverse population of prospective college students, especially among those who self-identify as Hispanic and/or Latina/o/x (above), it is important for enrollment management professionals to be more intentional and inclusive with recruitment efforts. Photo courtesy of Loyola Marymount University.
Overall, institutions that exhibit a high level of adaptability and decisiveness will have greater long-term success as they wade through the implications of the emerging trends. Jesuit and Catholic colleges and universities can usher in a more inventive and accessible era of higher education; many are already doing just that.
Wide-ranging issues caused by the pandemic and ongoing social unrest have elicited a great deal of reflection in the last couple of years. Jesuit and Catholic institutions need to establish purposeful pathways to welcome more students of diverse backgrounds to further enrich their campuses.
As former president at Holy Cross Rev. John E. Brooks, S.J., once said, “Any college that wants to stay relevant and in the top tier has to reach out to every group of future leaders.”
Cornell B. LeSane II is vice provost for enrollment management at the College of the Holy Cross.
The featured cover photo (above) is courtesy of Greg Rosenke via Unsplash.